Brian Katulis on U.S. Policy in Pakistan

What is the current state of affairs in Pakistan?

Pakistan is suffering from a great deal of internal instability. The security situation has dramatically worsened over the last two years, there has been a sharp increase in terrorist attacks and deaths from terrorist attacks since 2007 and there's been political infighting between the main factions--the main parties that dominate Pakistan's political life--and to top it off there's been major challenges with the economy. The Pakistani government is facing a liquidity crisis, being unable to pay some of its bills, and at a popular level, people are experiencing high prices of food and fuel. All of these add up to a very combustible mix.

What is current role of the United States in Pakistan?

Well, currently the United States has played a quiet role in mediating between two different factions in Pakistan: the government led by President Zardari and an opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. So its been playing a very effective quiet role behind the scenes trying to head off a political crisis that came to a head about a week or so ago. In addition, we've been offering economic assistance to the government and to the people of Pakistan, and then most importantly we've been conducting some military operations, targeted military operations, largely in eastern Afghanistan, but some of these have extended into Pakistan, in particular the Predator drone strikes. These strikes are actually very controversial; on the one hand, people say, some people say that these have been effective in eliminating the terrorist leaders from the battlefield. On the other hand, the risks associated with these include the blowback and the deep unpopularity of these strikes and the concerns expressed by the Pakistani government.

What can we do to help stabilize Pakistan and the region?

Well, the most important thing that we can do is to look at Pakistan as a challenge that requires the full range of U.S. powers--our military power, our political power, and economic power in a comprehensive strategy, a sustainable security strategy if you will. I think Pakistan is probably the best test case of this because there is no way that the U.S. is going to have a very large military presence on the ground in Pakistan. So we need to look at how we can work politically, diplomatically, and economically to help the country stabilize itself. I think in the coming months you're going to see an unveiling of the strategy that includes tripling economic assistance to Pakistan, which is a great idea. Vice President Biden had supported this. The Kerry-Lugar legislation on Capital Hill supports this. But all of this is easier said than done. Once we triple economic assistance, there's a difficult challenge of how do we actually make that economic assistance effective, make sure it's not lost to corruption, make sure it gets into the hands of ordinary Pakistanis to help improve their lives. So that's item number one, economic development assistance.

Second, political: political transition, and political assistance too. Pakistan is a nascent democracy. For 60 years it has been largely dominated by a security sector and in some instances we've been beholden to individual leaders like the former president, President Pervez Musharaff. I think this new administration, the Obama administration, is trying to move beyond this addiction to dictators and diversify our relations with a range of actors in Pakistan. All of this, again, is easier said than done, and trying to help support the civilian government I think would be a key mainstay of the strategy and that it will require a strong diplomatic and development assistance approach.