Ask the Expert: Andrew Light on what needs to happen at COP 17, the Durban climate conference

What is the state of the world’s efforts to combat climate change?

While global carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions went down during the Great Recession, unfortunately they’re now back on the rise. But the good news is that we now have a better picture of what countries are wiling to do by 2020 to try to stabilize temperature increases caused by carbon pollution at two degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels.

In January 2010, those countries that agreed with the Copenhagen Accord, which was signed in December of 2009, put forward which policies they were willing to take in order to reduce emissions by 2020. Here at the Center for American Progress we’ve added up all of those collected submissions. Our conclusion is that all of these parties together, if they do everything they say they will do, we’re two-thirds of the way, by the end of the decade, to reaching the emissions reductions we need to see.

What is on the agenda for COP 17 in Durban, South Africa?

There are two major buckets of issues on the agenda for COP 17. On the one hand, parties want to build on the great success they had at the last climate summit in Cancun in 2010 and build on what are called the Cancun agreements. These laid out building blocks for an international climate treaty. On the other hand, in 2012 we are going to see the expiration of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, currently the only international binding agreement that requires some countries around the world to reduce their emissions.

What you’ll see at Durban is a clash between these two competing agendas. Some parties will want to talk about the future of the Kyoto Protocol, and others will want to do the homework that they set for themselves coming out of the Cancun meeting.

What needs to happen in Durban to signal meaningful progress?

Most observers are going to look at the future of the Kyoto Protocol as the most important action item that could signal progress coming out of the meeting. We at the Center for American Progress disagree. At this point, only the European Union is willing to move forward with a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. Altogether, the emissions from the European Union are less than 20 percent of global emissions. So even if that treaty does continue, it can’t possibly solve the problem that we’re facing.

The Green Climate Fund is the most important part of the pledge made at the last two climate summits. It will eventually mobilize $100 billion annually, by 2020, to fight climate change both through mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing countries. We at the Center for American Progress will focus on finalizing the implementing document for the Green Climate Fund, which almost got across the goal line in advance of the Durban meeting. We need to begin moving finance around the world collectively to get the emissions reductions we need to achieve climate safety.