Experts in the Field: Samuel Charap interviews Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin on New START—Part two

Samuel Charap: The debate in the Senate on the New START arms control treaty has now begun. General Viktor Yesin, the former chief of staff of the Russian strategic missile forces, had some illuminating things to say about the criticisms of the new treaty one often hears in Washington.

I asked him about the rules for counting warheads, which some have said could allow the Russians to build up their arsenal. Bombers—when they're on the ground—can carry no warheads or they can store several, so negotiators have to arbitrarily assign a number to them to determine a country's total warhead count. In this treaty, the sides agreed to count bombers as having one warhead, and critics say that could actually allow Russia to increase its stockpile, presumably by storing warheads in bombers.

Gen. Yesin: This is a mockery of the concept of nuclear deterrence. Deterrence has two elements: land-based and sea-based. The aviation component is supplementary. Why? Because only land- and sea-based missiles can be involved in an initial nuclear strike.

Samuel Charap: The New START treaty doesn't allow for U.S. inspectors to remain at the Russian nuclear missile production facilities at Votkinsk, an industrial town 600 miles East of Moscow. Some argue that if the United States doesn't have eyes on the ground at Votkinsk, the Russians could build up their arsenal and we wouldn't find out about it until after the fact. But Yesin rightly points out that the new treaty puts a lower limit on launchers, and without being deployed on launchers, any new warheads that could be produced at Votkinsk would not change the overall nuclear balance.

Gen. Yesin: [Votkinsk] did not add anything to the verification system. Because, in the end, only deployed nuclear warheads can participate in a strike. And no matter how many missiles I might have that are not deployed, if my total quantity of launchers is limited, I will never be able to use all of them.

Samuel Charap: Some senators have expressed concern about Moscow's unilateral statement that it reserves the right to withdraw from the treaty if the U.S. missile defense program threatens Russia's nuclear deterrent. They argue this is a calculated move to prevent the Obama administration from following through on its missile defense plans.

Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK)(from Senate meeting): We're saying that it's not legally binding, although the Russians say it is legally binding. Does that bother you? Well, it bothers me.

Samuel Charap : But Gen. Yesin did not see it in quite those terms.

Gen. Yesin: The government of any country wants to maintain political stability. This unilateral statement was made as a compromise for the fears that a portion of the [Russian] population has [about U.S. missile defense plans].

Samuel Charap : Gen. Yesin was referring to hawks in the Russian political and military establishment who tend to be deeply concerned about the possibility that a future U.S. missile defense system would limit Russia's first-strike capacity. The Kremlin made the statement as a signal to that group that their concerns have been taken into account. According to the General, it was a nod to a domestic political constituency rather than a warning to the United States.

We also talked about what might happen if the Senate doesn’t ratify the treaty.

Gen. Yesin: If it does not come into force, this will not only harm the trust for Obama in [Russia] but it will also have a negative impact on U.S.-Russia relations and, in principle, on global strategic stability. It's not a secret that more than 90 percent of the world's total nuclear arsenal is located in the United States and in Russia, and it is very important that these countries show a commitment to nuclear disarmament. Of course, global zero is very far off and [President Obama] showed he is well aware of this when he said he may not live long enough to see global zero. But if we do not work on this issue, if we say that global zero is very far off and therefore is not worth working toward, this will start to have highly deleterious effects.