Ask the Expert: Marshall Fitz on border security
What is the current state of unauthorized migration at our southern border?
Some lawmakers and immigration restrictionists continue to argue that our southern border is porous and that the Department of Homeland Security is failing in its border security efforts. The facts belie those claims. Undocumented immigration across the U.S-Mexico border is at historic lows. In fact, some experts believe that the net flow has reached zero, meaning as many undocumented people are leaving the United States as are coming.
What we know for sure is that far fewer people are attempting to enter the U.S. without authorization. And for those who do attempt to cross, Border Patrol is preventing or catching them at a far greater rate than ever before. From 2000 to 2004 more than half a million unauthorized border crossers or visa violators from Mexico settled in the United States. The Pew Hispanic Center says that in 2010 that number dropped to less than 100,000. That is a massive decline and one that should force a change in the dialogue about immigration policy and border security.
When considering whether to unlawfully try to enter the United States, the typical migrant makes a rational calculation based on a number of considerations. Those factors include whether they believe a job is waiting, how much it will cost to cross, and what are the risks involved.
Right now, all of those considerations militate against trying to enter. Obviously, the current ugly employment picture in the U.S. means that the draw of economic opportunity is low. So the pull factor is greatly diminished.
Just as important, however, has been the massive border build-up over the last 20 years. In the last eight years, we have spent more than $115 billion on our primary immigration and border enforcement agencies. In the last seven years, we have more than doubled the number of border patrol agents. The ability to prevent or catch and impose consequences on would-be border crossers is at its peak.
And because the buildup has made it far more difficult to enter the United States, migrants have to pay a smuggler to help them, most of whom are now loosely controlled by the drug cartels. The average costs of crossing are now between 3 and 5 thousand dollars, the highest it has ever been. And it means they have to interact with increasingly ruthless criminals who have been killing and kidnapping migrants.
Between the poor economy and the difficulty, the cost, and the danger of crossing, most would-be border crossers are deciding not to come.
Why is now the right time for a comprehensive approach to immigration reform?
The convergence of a historic recession and unprecedented enforcement explains the severity of the drop-off in illegal immigration. But it also suggests that the gains in deterring illegal immigration may not be secure. When the economy rebounds and the pull factors grow stronger, the calculus of would-be migrants will change.
When that happens, we will need a better mechanism for regulating economic migration than our current system provides. Otherwise, some of the dysfunction that has accompanied the border buildup will be exacerbated when the pressure on the border increases.
The current drop-off in migration presents us with a unique opportunity to design a forward-looking system that addresses those concerns and tackles the elephant in the debate: how to deal realistically with 11 million unauthorized immigrants already living, working, and integrating themselves into our society.