Ask the Expert: Colin Cookman on Afghanistan's Political Future

Q: What needs to be done to ensure stability in Afghanistan?

A: The United States is ending a period of intense combat operations in Afghanistan and, together with its allies, looking to transition much of that responsibility to the Afghan government going forward. As we reduce our presence, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the Afghan government's capabilities to take on this responsibility, and how it's going to manage issues not just of military operations but also political inclusivity, reconciliation with insurgent rivals, and other problems which ultimately at the heart are going to be ones of politics and diplomacy less than intense military operations.

Q: What can the United States do to ensure a smooth political transition?

A: The Afghan political system is also going to be going through a major transition as President Karzai—who has been in power in what is a very highly centralized presidential system—transfers authority to an as-yet undetermined successor. These issues of political transition will be critical for Afghanistan's medium- and long-term security and the United States needs to, together with its partners, prioritize them in all of its interactions with the Afghan government. As we are making commitments to the Afghan government for its long-term stability, the Afghan government needs to respond with commitments—political reform commitments that will help insure that security as well.

Q: What are the prospects for political reconciliation between Afghanistan's conflict parties?

A: Overcoming this mutual suspicion between all the conflict parties is going to require some measure of confidence building from all sides. From the Afghan government; from the United States, whether that's through prisoner exchanges or other means; and from the Taliban, through a clear signal that they are in fact willing to give up violence and participate in a political process. They're going to need to be broadly inclusive not just of the U.S. government, the Afghan government, and the Taliban, but also regional neighbors, opposition political parties not currently a part of the Afghan government, and of marginalized communities, women, and civil society organizations.